12/21/2014 Weekly Outlook

For those of you that didn't already see my newest video on YouTube, you can check it out here --- this video is an overview of my early week orders and a little insight into this week's market.

I expect to see make some money in the EUR this week, especially in my EUR/GBP and EUR/USD this week. The EUR/USD has remained relatively flat the past 3 weeks serious downward pressure due to the European debt crisis. BUT what will become of the USD in 2015? With the Fed telling us that interest rates are going to go up next year, the USD can only expect to slow down and will begin to reverse direction on most major currencies once that rate does climb (most likely around the middle of the year).

So for the week of 12/21/2014, what orders did I place? I will talk about my trades in terms of which one is next to be executed. The AUD/USD is actually being traded this week. After staying out of the AUD last week due to my S1 and S2 being above my below Bollinger Band, I placed a limi buy order at .8106 (28 pips away). My S1 is finally within the bands and my S2 is aligned perfectly with the lower band. A 5,000 unit order moving merely 5 pips will give me a very decent ROI.

Next, the EUR/GBP, like I said, I am expecting some big stuff from the EUR this week. With a 3,000 unit order placed long on this pair at .77981 (29.9 pips away) a 5.8 pip bounce will leave me with a nearly 2.6% portfolio gain.

Below are the rest of my early week orders in order of closest to farthest away from being executed:

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I am going to be making my next video on Tuesday afternoon. Be sure to keep a look out. I will go over my intraweek orders. Also, I will be posting on the blog tomorrow about some micro-trading.

Happy trading. #YoungBuffett out.

Micro/Side Strategy

So, while my main strategy is my money maker and is mostly automated... I just need to do a 15 minute analysis twice a week and place some 2 day orders... I have been working on a micro/side strategy. I think I worked out all of the kinks in a demo account and going to see how it does with micro lots (50-150 units at a time). I did it tonight with 11 trades... all of them were correct. Took me 1 hour. I was using such small units that my total profit was about 50 cents lol... but if I were to use larger trades like 1,000 or 5,000 units then we all know that good ole' Uncle Murphy would have come to visit haha.

Anywho, this little strategy is simple. I will be doing a 15 minute demo of it tomorrow on my Youtube channel. So be sure to check that out. I will post the video here tomorrow too.

For those who missed my quick forex overview today, check out the video on YouTube... or watch it below:

Happy trading. #YoungBuffett out.

Tuesday Review

So I am going to start reviewing the market again today and setting up some orders for potential trades. I am going to start with the AUD pairs: AUD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/USD. If you remember, on Sunday, I didn't place orders for any of these pairs because the technical indicators were just not lining up properly. For Tuesday, I set up a buy order for the AUD/USD at .81394, this is a split different between S2 and my lower Bollinger Band (see my post from Sunday about split differences). I also set up dream orders for the AUD/CAD and AUD/CAD. Dream orders are orders that would take a miracle to actual hit. I set a limit sell on the upper Bollinger Bands for these two and have a T/P of 3 pips. These are super small movements, but with a large unit order, it would be like gaining 15 pips on a regular trade. However, these orders will almost never go through, that would be a 431 and 700 pip movement respectively in order for those orders to translate to a trade.

CAD/CHF... I am staying out of this one. It is currently outside of it's Bollinger Bands, which is a signal to STAY AWAY.

The EUR/GBP has some strong technical indicator overlay. I set up a limit buy and sell order for this pair. My buy is at .78085 (142 pips away) and my sell is at .79899 (53 pips away). Both of these orders are placed because the S2 and R2 line up perfectly with he lower and upper Bollinger Bands respectively.

EUR/USD is one of the most popular pairs in the world. It has been pretty volatile as of late, but I am placing a limit buy order at 1/21983 (307 pips away), which is a split difference order between my lower Bollinger Band and S2.

EUR/CAD I will be staying away from. It is outside of it's Bollinger Bands at the moment, which again, is a STAY AWAY sign... RED FLAG!

GBP/AUD is at the top of it's upper Bollinger Band, but the pivot points are way outside of the bands, so I am staying out.

GBP/CHF is looking good. I set up a limit buy order with a split different of S2 and lower band at 1.49977 (129 pips away) and a limit sell at the split different of R2 and upper band at 1.54928 (392 pips), which is a slight dream order. However, the reason I am comfortable with this limit sell is because R2 is still within the Bollinger Bands and S2 is the slightest hair below the lower band. I think this pair could give me a nice profit if it picks up. Especially with the news out of England today.

So... GBP/USD... WOW! It seems to have finally stabilized after 3 weeks now of staying steady after a 6 month decline. My lower Bollinger Band lines up PERFECTLY with S2, so I set a limit buy at 1.54563 (270 pips away).

NZD/CAD and USD/CAD are out of their Bollinger Bands, so I am staying out.

NZD/USD is a weird one the past few weeks. The bands are finally narrowing out, but the pivot points are still so far apart due to extreme volatility. I am going to set a limit sell only where my R2 and upper band line up. The S2 mark is too far below the lower band... actually S1 lines up perfectly, but I trade the level 2 markers. Limit sell at .80135.

USD/CHF... I traded this earlier in the week and made a nice profit and it only took 2 hours for me to make that profit. The R2 is a decent amount above the upper band. R1 is closer to it (despite being below it) than R2 is, so I am going to stay out of the pair. Maybe next week.

Lastly, the USD/JPY, what a ride this pair has been. I used to love this pair for being relatively stable. But, ever since late July/early August, this pair has been on a wild run. The last two weeks it has been come down though. If I would have held a trade from 3 weeks ago instead of selling for my loss, I would had been profitable again... but hey, hindsight is 20/20. I am placing a limit sell at 121.840. This would mean the pair would have to go back to it's 2014 high for this to pick up... 477 pip movement... needless to say, that won't be happening... but maybe haha.

Don't forget to get your Young Buffett gear.

#YoungBuffett Out.

Week of December 14, 2014

It is 4:00 and I am sitting down to analyze the charts for the week. This week I will tell you which orders I placing and I may even place an image or two :) I will also tell you which pairs I am not going to place orders in. I analyze charts twice a week... Sunday and Wednesday. I set up my orders to expire after two days. 

This post may be more technical than my normal posts, but will also give you a little inside into how my mind works... so enjoy, this may be the only time I give you a snippet into my forex strategy. To start with, I trade using the 1 week charts, having my Bollinger Bands, SMA, EMA, and WMA on the chart and then I draw my pivot points over the weekly chart too. 

So let's start with the AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, GBP/AUD, and USD/CHF. I am not placing any orders in any of them today. The pivot points are way below the Bollinger Bands, which means that the technical indicators are not lining up. To explain what I mean, see the image below, which is a chart of the AUD/CAD and the same thing is happening with all of these pairs. 

Next is the CAD/CHF. I will be placing a limit sell order for this pair, but no limit buy. The reason is because my R2 and my upper Bollinger Band line up almost perfectly. This means to me that if the pair manages to jump that high, it will hit that ceiling and have to drop back down... at least a few pips, which is all I need in order to make a profit. For the USD/JPY, I placed a very similar order. However, R2 was slightly above my upper Bollinger Band, so I split the difference (see my last chart for what I mean on splitting the difference.) Here is the CAD/CHF chart:

Next we come to the EUR/GBP. This is one of the most stable pairs that I trade. Typically they are pretty similar in movement because their economies are so closely related and intertwined. This pair stays within their Bollinger Bands almost always and typically adhere to their pivot points. So I have placed  limit buy AND a limit sell with this pair. I also placed limit buy and limit sell orders for the NZD/USD due to the exact same technical indications. Here is the EUR/GBP chart:

The EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, and NZD/CAD are all very similar in my CAD/CHF except I am placing a limit buy only, my S2 is a tad below the lower Bollinger Band, so I split the different and placed a limit buy order. The only difference is the GBP/USD (the lower band and the S2 are perfectly lined up.) Here is the EUR/USD chart:

So, that is my outlook for the week, or at least the first couple of days. If you are wondering about the USD/CAD, I am actually short in the pair currently and up a few pips, waiting for it to hit a 12 pip profit then my T/P will be engaged. I have also been asked about my use of the MACD... well I don't use it too often. Honestly, I use the MACD when I am already in a trade and my T/P or Stop Loss has not been engaged for a couple of days, so I look at the daily MACD to see if I should just get out or hold on.

Happy trading this week. 

#Young Buffett out. 

Be Wary of USD. Great Trades with NZD/CHF. WSJ News

Today was a great day for the NZD/CHF. great day for the NZD in general. I went long on the NZD/CHF pair this morning and within an hour and a half it jumped to my take profit of 44.5 pips. it was a decent little pop. I could have squeezed a few more pips out of the pair, but one of my top rules is to not be greedy.

I am still holding on to my dropping USD/MXN. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about how the Mexican government is going to start selling back the USD in order to make the MXN go up in value. So I have a feeling that over the next month, there could be some major downward pressure on the pair if the Mexican government follows through. Also, the USD will start to have some major downward pressure in January.

Another article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday spoke about how the Fed is going to be dropping "considerable time" pledge. The considerable time pledge was that there is a considerable amount of time until the Fed will begin to up interest rates. They now believe that the economy is recovering so nicely that they don't need to keep selling cheap credit and they can begin to up interest rates. This increase of interest rates will definitely decrease the USD as many people will pull out of it due to higher rates. My hope is that my USD/MXN short will become profitable in mid-January when the Fed officially drops this pledge. Like I have said many times before, I am not one to trade based off of world news and policy, but sometimes when a trade is not going the way the technical indicators say, I delve into some economic news to see if I should get out for a loss or hold on for a potential profit. At lease shorting the USD/MXN I am making a few dimes every day from the interest (if you use Oanda like me) or the  rollS (if you use FXCM).

Anywho, that is my two cents for the day. I think it is a perfect time for people to short the USD/MXN. I may have shorted a bit soon, but I think it is still a good buy and I think doing it now would be the perfect buy... well the perfect sell haha. I think the Wall Street Journal nailed it when they said the USD is getting to large. It can't keep climbing. It has been for weeks now. Be wary fellow traders.

On a closing note. Feel free to follow me on Twitter. I just launched an account. @YoungWBuffett. I would love to build up a nice Twitter following. I will probably tweet about as much as I post here.

#YoungBuffett Out

Vacation

So I have been on vacation for the past week and today is my last day of vacation. I placed a few orders before I left and then I logged into the account halfway through my vacation and placed a few more orders. It has been nice, I have made just as much money as I would have and I have only been spending about 1/4 of the time doing it. It has been great. The AUD has been great to me over break. I made 2 trades in the AUD (longing it) and made a 5.5% account gain. In just a short 4 days (6 days, bur 2 were the weekend) I made a total of 8% flat. It has been great. So my account is way on schedule, actually a tad ahead of schedule. I will make a larger post tomorrow that covers more of my trades and more of my thoughts on the different currencies.

#YoungBuffett Out

Take Profit

Over night some of my trades that were killing me, like the NZD/CHF... but it turned around like I expected. It was hard to let them hold over night being down over 100 pips. I had to not get emotional and just stick with what the charts were reading. Thank God I stayed the course and didn't fear going long (time). I ended up edging out a 1.2% portfolio gain on that one trade alone. Then my EUR/USD edged my portfolio up another 1.1% (I know I said it is going to 1.26 and I still think it is, but I took my profit when I could), for a total gain on the day of 2.312% on my portfolio.

Tonight will be the last limit trades I place for the month before I leave for a vacation. I won't be placing any more trades until I get back on 12/3. But as it stands right now, November gave me a gain of 29.08%! In one month, that is fantastic. Just if I didn't have that dreaded 11/14 day where my portfolio lost 23.08% in one day... but thems the breaks haha. Its all part of the game and I am still net positive, which is fantastic.

How have you all been doing with the wild Yen? Do you think the USD run is over? I am on the fence, I think that the EUR is going to start gaining some more on the USD and definitely think that that the USD will start losing some ground against some of the other major currencies... I hope I am wrong, simply because I like when the USD does well because my stocks go up :)

Anywho, that is all for the day, I woke up to a few nice notifications on my phone of Take Profit. Here is my month, the last few days are flat because... well we haven't gotten there yet, so the graph is using data from my current portfolio standing:

#YoungBuffett Out

Thanksgiving Week

Thanksgiving week is a half week for me. I will be leaving town on Wednesday morning with only a couple limit orders placed with small TP margins... just be looking for a 10 to 15 pip jump while I am gone. Buuuut, the first few days of the week I am keeping my eye on the GBP/USD. It has been bouncing off of that lower Bollinger Band for a few weeks now. I am thinking there will be a large bullish trend. I am setting a limit buy for 1.55876 and a TP at 1.59500. This will be a long move for the week for me. I like to balance my week with about 30% long (time wise, not long in the buy/sell sense) trades, 50% day trades, and 20% mid trades (2-3 days).

I also have my eye on the EUR/USD. I bought in long at 1.23927. It is down a couple pips right now, but I expect a bullish run into the low 1.26 range, I did have a conservative TP at 1.25, a whole 100 pips or so lower than my expectation, but I changed it today to a 1.26 TP order. I really see a long position that will pay off.

The AUD/CAD has been bouncing for three weeks now. Up and down, leaving it almost neutral over a three week time. I think it will drop a little more to .97054, if it does, I will pick up a bullish position to run to .9788. It will be a decent 83 and change pip move.

If the EUR/AUD drops to 1.46742 I will sell it short and look for a bearish run to 1.4424. this 250 pip run is very reasonable I think. I think if it hits the 1.46742 mark, it would take a week tops to drop 250 pips. Honestly, it could happen in 2 days I think.

The SGD/CHF was a nice ride for me last week. I bought long at .7353 and rode to .7400. It is now at  the .7460 area and I see a continual bullish run. I have a limit buy at .73891, which probably won't hit because it is so far below where it is right now and I do see it continuing to rise, but I don't want to risk that much when you can only margin 20:1 on that pair.

Now the AUD/SGD is a fun pair to trade. The Bollinger Bands, pivot points, and the SMA, WMA, EMA all point to a decline... at least that is what I see. I am setting up a limit buy on the pair at 1.10185 and looking for a 225 pip run up.

I am also setting up a limit buy for the AUD/CHF at .82122 looking for a 100 pip run on that one. I don't think it will get picked up this week. The pair is relatively flat and the bands and points show it staying flat for another week or two. Again, the way I read it.

HOLY COW, can we just look at the AUD/HKD for a moment. The bands are SOOOOOO wide. It doesn't know what to make of the pair. The pivot points are all in the lower channel too, so I don't know what to make of it. I will set up a limit there... a buy at 6.6 with a run to 6.9. This one definitely won't hit this week, but I shall see.

EUR/NOK, limit sell at 8.54187, looking for a bear movement to 8.5 flat.

EUR/NZD... it can be expensive on the long trade, but if it drops to 1.55602 I will buy it long to 1.56799. If it happens to spike up to 1.62461, the R3 pivot point, I will short it to 1.60552. Shorting this pair is nice because it actually pays a pretty decent interest rate per day... but longing it can cost you, so if you do long it, make sure you are positive you will make a nice movement on it.

The NZD/HKD pays a great interest rate on a long trade. So I am setting up a limit at 5.91343 and going to ride it long for 1,750 pips (really not a lot for this pair).

Where I am currently getting some pain is in the USD/CAD. I am about to hit a stop-loss there. I bought in at 1.13485. I have a TP set at 1.1376. For how much I have lost, I might cut the loss tomorrow when the markets open. The loss is not even worth the small gain. IDK, I am up in the air with this one.

The ZAR/JPY, USD/JPY, TRY/JPY, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY EUR/HUF (took it off my radar completely actually), and GBP/CHF... are all positions I am staying away from this week. They are way above their Bollinger Bands and their pivot points, so I will wait for them to neutralize. Honestly, the JPY has been fucking crazy lately. Pardon the French, but its so true. It has dropped sooooooo much. It is 2004 all over again. Maybe a new George Soros will rise from its ashes... maybe it will be me :).

So this is a long post with a lot of data, but I think it is all good stuff. Some may not agree with some of my limit order or even some of the ways I read my tables, but most people thought Warren Buffett and George Soros were fools too.

-The World Goes To The Doers
-You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
-If you don't have haters, then you doing something wrong.

#YoungBuffett out